Claim: The Obama administration should resist the temptation to intervene more forcefully in Syria’s civil war. A victory by either side would be equally undesirable for the United States.
Reason 1: Iranian money, weapons and operatives and Hezbollah troops have become key factors in the fighting; Assad's win would be disastrous.
Backing:
"Mr. Assad’s triumph would dramatically affirm the power and prestige of Shiite Iran and Hezbollah, its Lebanon-based proxy — posing a direct threat both to the Sunni Arab states and to Israel." (assertion of fact)
Reason 2: Extremist groups, some identified with Al Qaeda, have become the most effective fighting force in Syria.
Backing:
"If those rebel groups manage to win, they would almost certainly try to form a government hostile to the United States. Moreover, Israel could not expect tranquillity on its northern border if the jihadis were to triumph in Syria."
Reason 3: Unavailability of help from Syria's neighbour - Turkey.
Backing:
"In mid-2011, Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, loudly demanded that it end. But instead of being intimidated into surrender, Mr. Assad’s spokesmen publicly ridiculed Mr. Erdogan"
"While his armed forces proceeded to shoot down a Turkish fighter jet, before repeatedly firing artillery rounds into Turkish territory and setting off lethal car bombs at a Turkish border crossing. To everyone’s surprise, there was no significant retaliation."
"Turkey has large and restless minority populations that don’t trust their own government, which itself does not trust its own army"
Reason 4: The war is now being waged by warlords and dangerous extremists.
Backing:
"Taliban-style Salafist fanatics who beat and kill even devout Sunnis because they fail to ape their alien ways"
"Sunni extremists who have been murdering innocent Alawites and Christians merely because of their religion"
"Jihadis from Iraq and all over the world who have advertised their intention to turn Syria into a base for global jihad aimed at Europe and the United States" (assertion of facts)
Reason 5: An Iranian-backed restoration of the Assad regime would increase Iran’s power and status across the entire Middle East, while a victory by the extremist-dominated rebels would inaugurate another wave of Al Qaeda terrorism.
Reason 6: Non-Sunni Syrians can expect only social exclusion or even outright massacre if the rebels win, while the nonfundamentalist Sunni majority would face renewed political oppression if Mr. Assad wins.
Reason 7: A full-scale American invasion to defeat both Mr. Assad and the extremists fighting against his regime wouldn't also be desirable.
Backing:
"That could lead to a Syria under American occupation. And very few Americans today are likely to support another costly military adventure in the Middle East." (use of common belief)
Reason 1: Iranian money, weapons and operatives and Hezbollah troops have become key factors in the fighting; Assad's win would be disastrous.
Backing:
"Mr. Assad’s triumph would dramatically affirm the power and prestige of Shiite Iran and Hezbollah, its Lebanon-based proxy — posing a direct threat both to the Sunni Arab states and to Israel." (assertion of fact)
Reason 2: Extremist groups, some identified with Al Qaeda, have become the most effective fighting force in Syria.
Backing:
"If those rebel groups manage to win, they would almost certainly try to form a government hostile to the United States. Moreover, Israel could not expect tranquillity on its northern border if the jihadis were to triumph in Syria."
Reason 3: Unavailability of help from Syria's neighbour - Turkey.
Backing:
"In mid-2011, Turkey’s prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, loudly demanded that it end. But instead of being intimidated into surrender, Mr. Assad’s spokesmen publicly ridiculed Mr. Erdogan"
"While his armed forces proceeded to shoot down a Turkish fighter jet, before repeatedly firing artillery rounds into Turkish territory and setting off lethal car bombs at a Turkish border crossing. To everyone’s surprise, there was no significant retaliation."
"Turkey has large and restless minority populations that don’t trust their own government, which itself does not trust its own army"
Reason 4: The war is now being waged by warlords and dangerous extremists.
Backing:
"Taliban-style Salafist fanatics who beat and kill even devout Sunnis because they fail to ape their alien ways"
"Sunni extremists who have been murdering innocent Alawites and Christians merely because of their religion"
"Jihadis from Iraq and all over the world who have advertised their intention to turn Syria into a base for global jihad aimed at Europe and the United States" (assertion of facts)
Reason 5: An Iranian-backed restoration of the Assad regime would increase Iran’s power and status across the entire Middle East, while a victory by the extremist-dominated rebels would inaugurate another wave of Al Qaeda terrorism.
Reason 6: Non-Sunni Syrians can expect only social exclusion or even outright massacre if the rebels win, while the nonfundamentalist Sunni majority would face renewed political oppression if Mr. Assad wins.
Reason 7: A full-scale American invasion to defeat both Mr. Assad and the extremists fighting against his regime wouldn't also be desirable.
Backing:
"That could lead to a Syria under American occupation. And very few Americans today are likely to support another costly military adventure in the Middle East." (use of common belief)
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