Next essay in this list is by the journalist David McRaney, who is the author of the blog and book named You Are Not So Smart. The essay was published in May 2013, and here he talks about the common misconception, that you should focus on the successful if you wish to be successful, otherwise known as the "survivorship bias".
David McRaney begins with a story, giving only minimal details, thereby inducing suspense; I'm immediately hooked. Then after elaborating different threads, he comes to the actual point, that of a statistician called Abraham Wald. We get an overview as to what kind of a person he was, and how he liked to solve problems, before going into the plight of air bombers in wars - their chance of survival out on the field was fifty-fifty. The author then explains how Wald's insight helped in solving this problem - he took into account not only the planes that survived, but also the ones that didn't make it back, successfully preventing the survivorship bias.
This bias is then detailed further, about how it makes one neglect information that aren't immediately visible due to its failure to attract the limelight. The author makes his point by taking examples from successful restaurants, books and companies, and also quotes a psychologist and a Google engineer. He then explores the role of luck that plays into this topic, with the help of an experiment done by a psychologist Richard Wiseman.
McRaney explains how the bias also skews ones vision of success, by mentioning how people generally consider older things - like cars, paintings and even old age people - to be better because they survived. He says one succumbs to this bias because you are terrible at statistics, and the advertisement companies at times take advantage of this fact, by giving the limelight to only the one off cases to make far fetched claims. The bias is not just within you, he says, but also in institutions, and its difficult to detect.
The author uses short sentences interspersed by the occasional longer one, and effectively makes use of examples from wide ranging domains, strengthening his case against this bias. He makes arguments taking real world stories, and uses sufficiently researched materials. The style is simple and semi formal.
He concludes suggesting how this bias can be fought, by being aware of all the aspects and not just the immediately visible ones, and by being open to chance and randomness. He also gives closure to Wald's story, by explaining his further achievements, and how he is seen today.
The essay reminds me of all the times I succumbed to such a bias, without even being aware of it. It does a good job of explaining how and the different ways it works, giving me insight into how it must be tackled.
David McRaney begins with a story, giving only minimal details, thereby inducing suspense; I'm immediately hooked. Then after elaborating different threads, he comes to the actual point, that of a statistician called Abraham Wald. We get an overview as to what kind of a person he was, and how he liked to solve problems, before going into the plight of air bombers in wars - their chance of survival out on the field was fifty-fifty. The author then explains how Wald's insight helped in solving this problem - he took into account not only the planes that survived, but also the ones that didn't make it back, successfully preventing the survivorship bias.
This bias is then detailed further, about how it makes one neglect information that aren't immediately visible due to its failure to attract the limelight. The author makes his point by taking examples from successful restaurants, books and companies, and also quotes a psychologist and a Google engineer. He then explores the role of luck that plays into this topic, with the help of an experiment done by a psychologist Richard Wiseman.
McRaney explains how the bias also skews ones vision of success, by mentioning how people generally consider older things - like cars, paintings and even old age people - to be better because they survived. He says one succumbs to this bias because you are terrible at statistics, and the advertisement companies at times take advantage of this fact, by giving the limelight to only the one off cases to make far fetched claims. The bias is not just within you, he says, but also in institutions, and its difficult to detect.
The author uses short sentences interspersed by the occasional longer one, and effectively makes use of examples from wide ranging domains, strengthening his case against this bias. He makes arguments taking real world stories, and uses sufficiently researched materials. The style is simple and semi formal.
He concludes suggesting how this bias can be fought, by being aware of all the aspects and not just the immediately visible ones, and by being open to chance and randomness. He also gives closure to Wald's story, by explaining his further achievements, and how he is seen today.
The essay reminds me of all the times I succumbed to such a bias, without even being aware of it. It does a good job of explaining how and the different ways it works, giving me insight into how it must be tackled.
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